Market price of OEM parts

[Chris in Japan]

Dear all,

I was willing to start with you a chat regarding the evolution of prices of original parts for our beloved machines...

To summarize my life, I bought my first Panhead (49FL) in Uruguay in 1985 for 1'200 USD. This last week I bought a speedo for a 47F for 1'000 USD. I saw in eBay a 49 Deluxe solo seat closing at 4'500 USD, guide spotlights and bar closing at 1'000 USD, frames at 3'000 USD, engines at 9'000, starter pedals at 300 USD!!!

When I see these prices I automatically laugh, but honestly speaking I ironically laugh because in reality I am sad of being those things fully beyond my budget. And collecting old Harley was in my beginning by no way a rich man's hobby! This was just for those with enough love to old iron, enough nostalgic feeling and a good dose of masochism to push your 300kg heavy dead horse back home some few kilometers!!!

If we observe the exponential evolution of this OEM parts prices, the short question is how will this continue in the next 5, 10, 20 years?

In Europe and Japan (I can not speak for US), a fully top early Knucklehead achieves comfortable 70,000 USD. A late Knucklehead and the first Pan, in same condition is easily sold for 50,000 USD. Will we see these sames bikes above 100,000 in ten years? Will we pay 2,000 USD for the correct Guide headlamp in five years?

Ebay has made true the dream of each merchant: made the demand perfect (spread it worldwide) to let the offer reach the highest possible prices. I think that the amount of discoveries of up to date unknown Harleys is also almost finishing. 95% have certainly been spotted and have been restored, or have been cut in pieces to feed the mentioned demand...

I throw the question then to the AMCA arena... Is this just a wave? Will prices stagnate or even revert their crazy growth of today? Are Knuckleheads so damned "cool" today but will they loose value in the hands of new generations with zero connection to those 40's and/or new things much more attractive to collect? Will we be able to ride these machines in 10 years without paying thousands of penalties because of violation of every CO2, noise, consumption, brake performance, bla-bla-bla norms???

Let me hear your thoughts about this.

Nice weekend to all from sunny and windy Tokyo!

Chris.

[micmac]

That's the reason I don't have a speedo for my 47 Chief, I refuse to spend $1200.00 for it. I hope to one day stumble on one. This stuff is not made out of unobtanium. I like you have messed around with this stuff since the early 1970's when it was not cool to ride. Now the people who looked down on us have made the hobby (lifestyle) very expensive. I don't think prices will ever go down.

[Chris in Japan]

Talking about prices, here is an auction worth as an example...

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eB...=#ht_500wt_814

Kind regards,

Chris

[c.o.]

Talking about prices, here is an auction worth as an example...

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/ws/eB...=#ht_500wt_814

Kind regards,

Chris

No kidding...... that almost makes the price of speedometers seem reasonable. The cover is the holy grail '36 I guess...maybe that's why you see them for sale for a hundred grand... It's too bad old motorsickles got popular...

[Rubone]

That is the standard air cleaner for '35 to '40 all models with the deluxe packages or over the counter to whomever wanted one. Not nearly as rare as a '36 Knuckle cover.
Robbie

[c.o.]

Jeez....... I didn't read that auction right at all! Thanks for straightening me out Robbie! So is it worth a grand?

[BNSONS]

There are still deals to be had. A friend found a orig 6" air cleaner cover at Oley. Still chrome & showing a little ware for a mere $45. dollars. I'd say the average price for complete 6" a/c is 8-12 hundred depending on condition. Don't hate the seller, learn to invest you money.

[c.o.]

On the sellers end, good for him if he can get it and thanks for clearing up the value on such a part. I had no idea.

[Jerry Wieland]

There is actually 3 versions of that 6" air cleaner. The one talked about is the last style used 1938 to 1940. Thanks Jerry

[INLINE4NUT]

Chris prices are only going up if people are willing to pay the price ! I have a late model Knuck and 100,000 would most likely buy it!.....That being said I dont see anyone offering and if they did its theirs short of that Im happy having it and have been from the day I was told I was CRAZY paying the huge sum of 3500!!!Thats with a sidecar original paperwork and warrenty card ! So I guess as long as you want something and have the money alls fair!

[exeric]

My first real motorcycle was a '41EL that I paid $450 for and rode it home. That amount of money was very hard for me to scrape up in the early 70's and I was working full time. Even then, people thought I paid too much for a motorcycle that was over 30 years old. Of coarse, it's all perspective and no one could have predicted the extreme interest in old motorcycles. Today, I would value that motorcycle, in the shape it was in, at about 20-25 G's. It was a mix of parts but it was all genuine H-D and some of it, quite nice. Still, that's over 50 times what I paid for the bike way back when. Nothing else in my life has increased in value that much.

[Chris in Japan]

All this is clear, Eric. Similar happened to me with a 49FL for 1,200 USD...

My initial question was more focused in the future.

Could something happen that prices would stabilize at a certain level or even decrease (why not?)...?

Something is sure - the slope can not be the same as in the last 20 years! If we were just talking about 1G bikes going to 20G, we will all agree that we will not multiply by 20 again and go to 400G in 20 years?

I will keep mine just in case I'm wrong...

Regards.

Chris.

[exeric]

Chris, I believe our precious motorcycles have gone from an interesting hobby for eccentric nut cases to a a bonafide "respectable" institution. Unfortuntely, there is probably no turning back because I don't know anyone that has a knucklehead, Indian 4, or Henderson that is going to let it go for a "reasonable" amount of money. The ball is in the court of the possessor's of these desirable machines and unless they've been drinking lacquer thinner to the point of causing brain damage, prices will continue to rise. There are close to 7 billion people on this planet now, which is why the environment is going to hell, but the gross global product is through the roof. Lots more money, lots more desire for rare stuff. In the old days rich sophisticates collected art and yachts. Today it's old cars, bikes, and Americana. The only thing that will make prices go down is something real bad like a plague, a comet, or Armageddon. If any of those things happen. . . . You can have all of my bikes.

[23JDCA 808]

. . sellers can no longer leave bad feedback about a deadbeat buyer, . . .)

I think you can enter a complaint which cannot be changed or challenged ...or you could buy something from Mr. Deadbeat and then slam the heck out of him. ...bill

[Ohio-Rider]

The world was a simpler place when everyone just collected stamps or old coins. I can predict with out fail that the prices of these old machines will fall dramaticlly on the same day I decide to sell any of mine. So we're safe for a while anyway.