Are Prices Softening?

[chuckthebeatertruck]

The last several months I have been out hunting some unusual bikes. Not our typical HD or Indian fare on AMCA; but more blue chip British bikes.

Since June; I've watched two Brough SS80s and three 1948-1951 Vincent Rapides (B and C series) sell for amazing small amounts in very good nick. The latest Vinnie sale was on an overrestored 1951 -- but it went for a measly $25,000 on Hagerty Marketplace.

That same bike was 38-40K all day long just a few years ago.

I'm also watching Rudge 500s, Scott Flying Squirrels and all manner of Ariel thumpers and Norton Thumpers just tumble. My own loved Tridents are also dropping like stones.

Any theories?

[JoJo357]

Steve, i've noticed this trend also. The British Motorcycles have taken a healthy twist downhill in the past year. I've owned & sold many British Motorcycles over the long years, and for some reason, they've always had a finicky walk of one step forward and two back, or two steps forward and one back, take your pick. To this day, i haven't a clue as to why. But, it is a great time to buy, just a crap shoot whether you'll hold an investment.
The past Mecum Las Vegas Auction, in late January, was a complete disaster for the British Motorcycles. Almost every other make & model went up if you retract the auction sales & prices, which are still available for viewing on their website. I thought it was because of the switch of presidency, but it didn't begin to explain why American, Japanese & European did fairly well. Like the old saying in Michigan about the weather. ''If You don't like the weather, wait 10 minutes". But, realistically it might be a lot longer than a 10 minute wait unfortunately.
Some of my long time British buying friends aren't even purchasing, unless it is a supreme deal, which they can easily flip, with only a marginal profit. I will kick this around with the British guru experts this Sunday at the 2025 'Battle of the Brits' Show & Swap Meet, and post pictures and maybe an explanation as to...WHY!!!!

1959 Velocette Venom Clubman For Sale At Auction - Mecum Auctions <----
One quick example, but there are many more. *Note that Mecum is not always the criteria for current rates. But, some of these prices were downright ridiculous, even by Mecum standards. *You'll probably have to log in to view the selling prices?

Las Vegas Motorcycles 2025 - Mecum Auctions <-----


*M.A.D.*

[Steve Slocombe]

Certainly prices in general were down at the last Mecum auction. Once you remove the big money collector bikes there were some real bargains. And Bonhams just sold a 1946 Harley U for under $20k. Britain is a more motorcycle-intensive country that the US, so there are a lot of older bikes here with fewer buyers. How many young people even have motorcycle rider permits these days? And who wants to buy a six volt kickstart bike? In the last couple of years I've bought a 1914 Douglas, a 1950 Sunbeam S8 and recently a 1952 Ariel Square Four, all for sensible money and not to flip but to enjoy. The Sunbeam is a 500 cc inline twin with overhead cam and shaft drive, matching numbers, and just right for road runs. Those Vincents are not rider bikes, but just sit in rich mens living rooms as a store of value. Like art, stamps, E-type Jags, the fashions ebb and flow. If you like riding old motorcycles this is a great time to buy.

[otis71]

I haven’t followed rarer Brit bikes closely but triumph 650s and their parts have been way down several years now.

[JoJo357]

Attended the 2025 42nd Annual 'Battle of the Brits', and inquired with a lot of old British Guru acquaintances in regard to this topic~Guess what? No one really had a substantial answer for this past slump with the current British Motorcycle dilemma. *Clueless in...Michigan. Oh Well.


*M.A.D.*

[Steve Slocombe]

Dear All, it's not just Brit bikes. At Mecum away from the exotica of 1500 lots were 165 unsold where 'the bid goes on'. This included two Crockers not going past $250k and three 1920s BMWs which had fetched fancy money in earlier auctions. Undocumented eight valve bikes were going near the cost of building them, custom bikes and choppers were either unsold or going cheaply, and there were some late model bikes I thought were bargains. In thousands of dollars there was a 2002 Harley V-Rod for 5.5, a 1988 chopper for 3, a 1985 FXEF for 2.75, a 1969 XLH for 3.3, a 1973 FLH for 3.3, a 1969 XLH for 1.9, and a 1981 XLS for 1.1. Several knuckleheads went for under $50k.

[BigLakeBob]

I wonder if the people that complain about not being able to afford an older motorcycle will take advantage of this market or will they still have an excuse?

One example.

The last several pages demonstrate why nostalgia is so incredibly dangerous.

A poster says they managed to come up with $1000 50 years ago when they only made $2.25/hr. They think that this "ratio" is still reasonable today and that young people who want a classic bike bad enough will find a way. This is nostalgia - not reality.

Put simply; the USD is not worth 15 percent of what it was 50 years ago.

Rather than debate "lifestyle" -- let's just use facts and math to illustrate.

The first step is understanding the value of a dollar is different from the value of a motorbike. Unless the bike is brand new -- it is not tied to a market index related to production value. It is a floating variable and does not (and never has) moved with general market for day to day commodities like groceries, housing, and health care.

With that understanding, you can start debunking all this "but I did it" bs.

To illustrate: a $1000 bike in 1975, as shared in this thread, is the equivalent of a $5,866 bike today in 2025 dollars. Go ahead and look it up on inflation calculators.

Now that you've picked your electronic jaw up off the floor because you didn't realize that 1975 isn't 2025; please tell us all where we can find "rideable, reliable" 1941 EL harleys for under $6,000. Considering all the "rideable, reliable" bikes we've seen are north of $30-35K . . .

Similarly, the national minimum wage in 1975 was $2.10/hr. That works out to $12.32/hr now. Except, the national minimum wage is $7.25/hr -- a HUGE difference of 70%.

So; to recap - if a young person is making just north of the minimum as our poster in 1975, well, they'd only be making 70% less in real 2025 dollars AND chasing a bike worth a real world 700% more than it was in 1975 when adjusted for inflation (not 1000 x 700 but rather 5,866 x 7 for those who don't like math).

To put this back into 1975 -- exactly how many 30 year olds did you guys know who had $7,000 (yes, 7000 in 1975) burning a hole in their pocket for a vintage bike? That 7000 is equivalent ot $41,000 today?

However, this is a dramatic over simplification.

We're forgetting something very important -- age of machine.

In 1975, said $1,000 1941 Harley was only 34 years old. That's the equivalent of a 1989 Evo powered Electraglide which DOES sell for around $5,000 for a good, clean, reliable rider.

So, indeed, 30-35 year old Harleys DO still sell for the same as that $1000 35 year old harley in 1975.

The problem is the 1941 is now 84 years old . . .hence the value is higher than a 35 year old Harley . . .

The challenge with this thread is the older members are looking for reasons to disprove the younger members and to continue talking down to the younger members by telling them they don't want it bad enough.

None of it is true and this isn't an "us vs them" battle. Continuing to denigrate younger club members based on belief, not fact, is how club's slowly fade.

[41craig]

Parts are going for less, also. I recently sold a WR Daytona oil tank and it went for $2025. I figured it would go for more being it had all the mounting brackets and oil line fittings and the cap with it's hold down clip (which repops don't have).

[chuckthebeatertruck]

I wonder if the people that complain about not being able to afford an older motorcycle will take advantage of this market or will they still have an excuse?

Ha!

Now you know why I was out hunting blue chip British bikes. I think I may have even posted about this back in 2023 when I was scouting bikes during the autumn AND the GPB was completely under valued compared to the USD. We're currently back to circa $1.30-1.35 to the pound; but still; the prices are dropping in the UK at a surprising clip. And, as Steve Slocombe points out -- you can see this in spades if you look more deeply at auction results. I was shocked at some recent Bonham auction results. Bikes I would have bid up to around $10,000; sold for 30-40% less!

Anyways, where it really caught my attention was the silver tier bikes. For example; while I have long wanted certain bikes; I couldn't justify tying up that much cash in them. Specifically, I really like sidevalve Broughs and Vincent Rapides (B in particular; don't have a prefrence for Brampton or Girdraulics). These bikes were unobtainable for a guy like me who prefers to spend under $10,000 on any one bike.

While SS100s and true Black Shadows continue to hold value; SS80s/680s and Vincent Rapides or Comets (if you like thumpers like me) are suddenly not insane and reported sales are showing continually dropping prices.. Good SS80s are suddenly trading $55000 to 70,000 and Rapide B or C are suddenly 30-35K average. That's a big shift and it does open the market to a lot more people. I saw a nice Rapide B at Wauseon with a $40K sticker on it . . . where as just two years before I saw a Black Prince in similar condition with a price tag 50% higher! And, very few people want a Black Prince or Black Knight -- making it all even more confusing. Heck, there was an extremely rare RICKMAN framed Trident -- one of less than 25; which was complete and had a whopping $12K on it as the asking price. Seriously -- nickel plated, true Rickman frame and all hardware -- all complete -- all for a song.

Of equal importance; some more "accessible" British and continental bikes are worth a lot less now than 10 years ago. Triples used to be "exotic" and either a Rocket 3, a Trident, or any type of Laverda would have set you back a good penny. I bought my Trident for a pittance -- easily 3g less than just 4 or 5 years ago. I then piled some 3500 miles on it this year -- including using it on the Detroit Lakes National Road Run just a week ago. Then there are all the MVs coming up for sale at next months Bonham's auction. I never thought I'd see some of them sell for less than 6 figures; let alone mid-five figures.

Hence why it is so important we keep pushing that AMCA is not just for "American" motorcycles. There's a whole world of very interesting, very capable, and very affordable bikes.

Right now; international agreements and the 25 year grey market import rule for vehicles coming into the United States is almost a god send if you have a few pennies to rub together. I really do need a Scott Flying Squirrel and a Rapide and a Rudge Ulster -- really I do.

[Steve Slocombe]

Go for it Chuck. We have the big UK Bonhams auction 10-12 October so get registered as a bidder as there are sure to be some bargains.

[micmac]

I'm going to New Zealand for a month in Dec-Jan, I will be hunting a 741 if the price is right. as well as the bike My wife is from there and I've been there many times over the last 50 years.

[BoschZEV]

Any theories?

The following is long enough that you might be sorry you asked....

Basically, we've passed the tipping point where now the old people interested in old bikes are getting older faster than younger people are replacing them. For several reasons, I've been following this trend for at least 30 years. Unfortunately, it's no longer possible to quantitatively track it in the U.S. because the situation is so bad with new bikes that industry stopped reporting the ever-declining sales figures sometime around 2017.

Using figures for worldwide motorcycle sales to try to judge the future market for old bikes isn't useful. Presumably, interest in old bikes is largely limited to people in Western countries with significant disposable incomes. However, less than 15% of the population lives in Western countries. Couple that with data that include scooters, electric bikes, and the small machines that dominate sales in the other 85%, and this makes worldwide data useless for present purposes.

Something I've written before is the Model T Ford Club of America was formed in 1965, at which time someone who was 15 in 1927, when the last one came off the line, would have been in their early 50s. Membership peaked at 30,000 roughly a decade later (age, early 60s), and then steadily declined to 6000 today (age, 111). The 1927 date means a club member who is 60 today is too young to have seen "ordinary" Model Ts still on the streets, although they might have experienced Model T hot rods of the '50s and early '60s. I see the fact that T-club membership is still 20% of its peak value, 98 years after the last Model T was made, as positive for the future of the AMCA.

Further on this, Model A Fords were produced for just four years following the Model T, with only one-quarter the production of the Model T. However, membership of the A-club is twice the size of the T-club, and is still at 50% of its peak of nearly fifty years ago. A significant difference between these cars is the improved brakes and h.p. of the Model A allow people to drive them many places today, whereas a Model T is limited to Sunday outings on lightly-traveled back roads.

This brings us to old bikes. While a modern Kawasaki H2 has a top speed of 250 mph, even my 1954 Gold Star can break highway speed limits without problem, as well as out-accelerate most cars on the road. Although the brakes on a Gold Star aren't as powerful as dual discs, they aren't far behind. What this means is, a Gold Star is essentially as useable on today's roads as is an H2.

I'll predict that if gasoline is still available in 20 years, motorcycles like the BSA Gold Star, Vincent Black Shadow, HD Panhead, etc. still will be in demand, so prices won't collapse completely. Likely, there still will be some younger motorcyclists who will recognize them as classics, and because they actually can be ridden on the street. If my prediction is correct, there still will be interest in an AMCA, albeit with a membership possibly half of what it is today, and in a form that will need to be somewhat different for those new, 21st century owners.

[chuckthebeatertruck]

[FONT=Times New Roman]The following is long enough that you might be sorry you asked....

Not sorry at all. I also read Motorcycle Industry News and have noted many of the same declines.

What's curious to me is how few people are noticing one of the only growing segments of riders in the US and UK are women aged 25-40.

[DEEBS47Chief1991]

I want that H2 that does 250MPH

[DEEBS47Chief1991]

As stated, some prices are still up there on certain bikes.

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