bedtime reading pleasure, your thoughts?

[Steve Swan]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...=yhoo.headline

[pisten-bully]

Interesting analysis, and wow it's complicated! Harley seems to be looking forward with some new stuff, electric and adventure bikes for example, that's good! Sounds like they pretty much need to look forward if they're going to survive. Why? Because if they can't maintain or grow then they will slowly whither away or go to the brink....just like the post war years when the market changed...bike bikes still sold but in smaller numbers. History can repeat itself.

[JoJo357]

Kinda reminds me all over again about how Harley-Davidson forced most of it's perfectly legit loyal & established Dealerships into abandoning their facilities, and then having them build brand new facilities, back in the mid-1990's. And... around the same time frame, Harley-Davidson created a heavy demand, and then allowed their dealerships to gouge their motorcycles they couldn't actually supply under demand! In fact, Harley-Davidson wouldn't have even touched the sport Motorcycle scene if they hadn't bought out ex-H.D. engineer/founder Erik Buell. Should not be called Harley-Davidson either--just, The Davidson Motor Company. The last remaining descendant of Harley was also bought out in the early 1980's. Kinda like...Sears & Roebuck--hahaha

https://youtu.be/PFC2wgrmlek

*M.A.D.*

[Green Indian]

As someone who worked at the York plant for 11 years before getting laid off I can tell you that this article hits many key points and HD will have to walk a careful line between keeping its core riders engage and buying their motorcycles all the while attracting new riders with motorcycles most of us probably would not want. I wish them luck threading that needle.

V-Rod was supposed to be a magic bullet until it quietly died a slow death, Buell too was an attempt at getting HD into other markets and let's not forget that they foolishly bought MV Agusta for $250 million, proceeded to pump another $250 million into that brand then sold it off for a loss in just a few short years to the guy they'd purchased it from. All of these were attempts at getting HD in front of new riders while growing their market share and bringing their shareholders "added value".

Their current stock buy back tells you a lot about their priorities in a tightening market made worse by declining sales, increased competition from a revived Indian MC and tariffs brought on by a global trade war; I'd say they need to focus less on shareholders and the next Wall Street quarterly report and focus on making a product that both older and younger riders will want. It won't be easy but they've survived both WW's and a global depression so no doubt they will find a way to make it happen.

Their outsourcing of production is a fact of life in this age of global markets, tariffs are biting hard into their profits so they will need to outsource the lower cost MC's to Asia to keep them profitable. But they'd better think twice about outsourcing heavyweight bikes to a foreign country then trying to reimport them to the US to sell to their core riders; that would be an unforgiveable sin to many riders and probably a fatal marketing/corporate board room error that could lead to the death of the company as we know it as a manufacture of heavy motorcycles. If that day comes to pass it might be of some small comfort to know that you might still be able to buy those HD logoed boxer briefs and golf Tees after all "global brands" have their priorities.

[Steve Swan]

ok..... while i abhor stereotyping, bigotry and prejudice, i could not help but get a chuckle out of this just sent to me by a friend in Canada.....

Harley Davidson is Closing many of its Plants Due to Declining Sales. Apparently, the Baby-Boomers all have motorcycles, and Generation X is only buying a very few, and the next generation, the Millennials, aren’t buying any at all.

A recent study was conducted to find out why?

Here are the reasons why Millennials don't ride motorcycles, and why sales are down:

1. Pants won't pull up far enough for them to straddle the seat.

2. Can't get their phone to their ear with a helmet on.

3. Can't use 2 hands to eat while driving.

4. They don't get a trophy and a recognition plaque just for buying one.

5. Don't have enough muscle to hold the bike up when stopped.

6 Might have a bug hit them in the face and then they would need emergency care.

7. Motorcycles don't have air conditioning.

8. They can't afford one because they spent 12 years in college trying to get a degree in Humanities, Social Studies or Gender Studies for which no jobs are available.

9. They are allergic to fresh air.

10. Their pajamas get caught on the exhaust pipes.

11. They might get their hands dirty checking the oil.

12. The handle bars have buttons and levers and cannot be controlled by touch-screen.

13. You have to shift manually and use something called a clutch.

14. It's too hard to take selfies while riding.

15. They don't come with training wheels like their bicycles did.

16. Motorcycles don't have power steering or power brakes.

17. Their nose ring interferes with the face shield.

18. They would have to use leg muscle to back up.

19. When they stop, a light breeze might blow exhaust in their face.

20 It could rain on them and expose them to non-soft water.

21. It might scare their therapy dog, and then the dog would need therapy.

22. Their man bun wont fit under a helmet.

[RichO]

Maybe you can't hear me Steve but that's me laughing.

[Steve Swan]

Maybe you can't hear me Steve but that's me laughing.

glad you got a chuckle, that's what life is all about, one laugh after another, tuff times and good times!

[Paps]

I am an HD person but I can't stand hearing the company playing on the hearts of the riders using patriotism as a sales pitch when they already out source parts and bikes over seas. How patriotic is that ?

[HD48FL]

Maybe you can't hear me Steve but that's me laughing.

Same here, that was great.

[AFJ]

As someone who worked at the York plant for 11 years before getting laid off I can tell you that this article hits many key points and HD will have to walk a careful line between keeping its core riders engage and buying their motorcycles all the while attracting new riders with motorcycles most of us probably would not want. I wish them luck threading that needle.

V-Rod was supposed to be a magic bullet until it quietly died a slow death, Buell too was an attempt at getting HD into other markets and let's not forget that they foolishly bought MV Agusta for $250 million, proceeded to pump another $250 million into that brand then sold it off for a loss in just a few short years to the guy they'd purchased it from. All of these were attempts at getting HD in front of new riders while growing their market share and bringing their shareholders "added value".

Their current stock buy back tells you a lot about their priorities in a tightening market made worse by declining sales, increased competition from a revived Indian MC and tariffs brought on by a global trade war; I'd say they need to focus less on shareholders and the next Wall Street quarterly report and focus on making a product that both older and younger riders will want. It won't be easy but they've survived both WW's and a global depression so no doubt they will find a way to make it happen.

Their outsourcing of production is a fact of life in this age of global markets, tariffs are biting hard into their profits so they will need to outsource the lower cost MC's to Asia to keep them profitable. But they'd better think twice about outsourcing heavyweight bikes to a foreign country then trying to reimport them to the US to sell to their core riders; that would be an unforgiveable sin to many riders and probably a fatal marketing/corporate board room error that could lead to the death of the company as we know it as a manufacture of heavy motorcycles. If that day comes to pass it might be of some small comfort to know that you might still be able to buy those HD logoed boxer briefs and golf Tees after all "global brands" have their priorities.

WHAT HAPPENED THE LAST TIME. My take on this tariff & motorcycle issue.

Tariffs and American Motorcycles, 1926-1942.

It was back in 1928, in the USA Congress, when Senator Smoot and Representative Hawley decided to help their farming constituents compete against cheaper foreign farm products by raising a “tariff wall” against imports. As what became known as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act wended its 2 year journey through the Congress, many other legislators, keen to curry favour with their electors, added many manufactured products to the list.

Now protective tariffs were nothing new in America. All through the 19th century there had been a conflict between people who wanted “free trade” amongst nations and those who wanted protection for their local businessmen and farmers. But by 1900, the US had generally sided with the principle of protectionism by tariffs, adjusting them as deemed necessary by voter desire for home-produced or imported goods and products.

So the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act finally passed into law in June of 1930, setting tariffs on almost 900 agricultural and manufactured import categories, involving some 20,000 specific items. By then the impacts of the 1929 Wall Street stock market “crash” were just beginning to be felt – but not understood – and other countries began to consider and enact countervailing tariffs against imports from the US. The “Great Depression” was under way and would last the rest of the “dirty 30's”, but this was only realized as time progressed.

The roles of Smoot-Hawley and the stock market “crash” in the cause of the Depression are much intertwined in the opinion of most economists, but some interesting figures from American motorcycle production give some clear idea of the impact. It should be noted that in the 1920's Both Harley-Davidson and Indian had significant export markets in continental Europe, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Japan and in other countries. Around 1926, about 40% of H-D production was exported.

Motorcycle production in Numbers of motorcycles for Harley-Davidson and Indian, 1926-1942.

Year Harley-Davidson Indian
--------- ---------------------- -----------
1926 23,354 c 8,000
1927 19,911 6,027
1928 22,350 5,077
1929 21,192 4,635
1930 17,422 3,790
1931 10,500 3,170
1932 6,841 <3,000
1933 3,703 1,657
1934 10,231 2,809
1935 10,368 3,715
1936 9,812 5,028
1937 11,674 6,030
1938 9,934 3,651
1939 8,355 8,883
1940 10,855 10,923
1941 18,428 8,720
1942 29,603 20,410


(H-D figures from D.K. Wright, The Harley-Davidson Motor Company, an Official 90 year History. Motorbooks International, 1993, Indian figures from H.V. Sucher, The Iron Redskin, Haynes Publishing, 1977.)

It seems clear that the “tariff” war which came in response to Smoot-Hawley by other countries significantly reduced the H-D and Indian sales to the rest of the world, and thereby also reducing sales in the US through worker layoffs. (The Henderson and Excelsior motorcycles made by the Schwinn bicycle firm were not made after mid-1931.) The British Empire and Commonwealth, including Canada had meetings in Ottawa in the summer of 1932, and set up an “Imperial Preference” system which gave British manufactured good exports to the Commonwealth/Empire lower tariffs, and preferentially lower British tariffs on agricultural imports from the Empire and Commonwealth. This agreement appears to have increased the numbers of British makes of motorcycleswhich were imported into Canada in the 1930s.

The recovery of American motorcycle production from 1940 through 1942 arose substantially from export sales. Indian obtained a contract from the French govt. in 1939 to build 5,000 Indian Military Chiefs with sidecars and later were producing the 30.50 Military (Jr.) Scout for the Lend-Lease program. Harley-Davidson in 1941-42 were producing the first 10,000 WLC 42-45s for the Canadian military.

As for Senator Smoot and Representative Hawley? Although long-time, elected senior Congressional politicians, they were both defeated in the autumn elections of 1932 and had no more role in US economic policy. They both died in 1941, as World War 2 armaments production was changing the world's economies forever.

AFJ

[bobbyt]

WHAT HAPPENED THE LAST TIME. My take on this tariff & motorcycle issue.

Tariffs and American Motorcycles, 1926-1942.

It was back in 1928, in the USA Congress, when Senator Smoot and Representative Hawley decided to help their farming constituents compete against cheaper foreign farm products by raising a “tariff wall” against imports. As what became known as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act wended its 2 year journey through the Congress, many other legislators, keen to curry favour with their electors, added many manufactured products to the list.

Now protective tariffs were nothing new in America. All through the 19th century there had been a conflict between people who wanted “free trade” amongst nations and those who wanted protection for their local businessmen and farmers. But by 1900, the US had generally sided with the principle of protectionism by tariffs, adjusting them as deemed necessary by voter desire for home-produced or imported goods and products.

So the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act finally passed into law in June of 1930, setting tariffs on almost 900 agricultural and manufactured import categories, involving some 20,000 specific items. By then the impacts of the 1929 Wall Street stock market “crash” were just beginning to be felt – but not understood – and other countries began to consider and enact countervailing tariffs against imports from the US. The “Great Depression” was under way and would last the rest of the “dirty 30's”, but this was only realized as time progressed.

The roles of Smoot-Hawley and the stock market “crash” in the cause of the Depression are much intertwined in the opinion of most economists, but some interesting figures from American motorcycle production give some clear idea of the impact. It should be noted that in the 1920's Both Harley-Davidson and Indian had significant export markets in continental Europe, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Japan and in other countries. Around 1926, about 40% of H-D production was exported.

Motorcycle production in Numbers of motorcycles for Harley-Davidson and Indian, 1926-1942.

Year Harley-Davidson Indian
--------- ---------------------- -----------
1926 23,354 c 8,000
1927 19,911 6,027
1928 22,350 5,077
1929 21,192 4,635
1930 17,422 3,790
1931 10,500 3,170
1932 6,841 <3,000
1933 3,703 1,657
1934 10,231 2,809
1935 10,368 3,715
1936 9,812 5,028
1937 11,674 6,030
1938 9,934 3,651
1939 8,355 8,883
1940 10,855 10,923
1941 18,428 8,720
1942 29,603 20,410


(H-D figures from D.K. Wright, The Harley-Davidson Motor Company, an Official 90 year History. Motorbooks International, 1993, Indian figures from H.V. Sucher, The Iron Redskin, Haynes Publishing, 1977.)

It seems clear that the “tariff” war which came in response to Smoot-Hawley by other countries significantly reduced the H-D and Indian sales to the rest of the world, and thereby also reducing sales in the US through worker layoffs. (The Henderson and Excelsior motorcycles made by the Schwinn bicycle firm were not made after mid-1931.) The British Empire and Commonwealth, including Canada had meetings in Ottawa in the summer of 1932, and set up an “Imperial Preference” system which gave British manufactured good exports to the Commonwealth/Empire lower tariffs, and preferentially lower British tariffs on agricultural imports from the Empire and Commonwealth. This agreement appears to have increased the numbers of British makes of motorcycleswhich were imported into Canada in the 1930s.

The recovery of American motorcycle production from 1940 through 1942 arose substantially from export sales. Indian obtained a contract from the French govt. in 1939 to build 5,000 Indian Military Chiefs with sidecars and later were producing the 30.50 Military (Jr.) Scout for the Lend-Lease program. Harley-Davidson in 1941-42 were producing the first 10,000 WLC 42-45s for the Canadian military.

As for Senator Smoot and Representative Hawley? Although long-time, elected senior Congressional politicians, they were both defeated in the autumn elections of 1932 and had no more role in US economic policy. They both died in 1941, as World War 2 armaments production was changing the world's economies forever.

AFJ

Good summary … the tariff issue actually came up just after the Great War. An isolationist group of Republicans controlled Congress, and the agricultural industry was not fairing well. During the first couple years of the twenties the legislature spent much time debating protectionist tariffs for American industry. It turns our that they discovered that they didn’t have much reliable information on production and exports. This lead the Census Bureau to begin collecting better statistics on economic output and activity. Thus the motorcycle manufacturers actually began providing production annual production numbers, along with most other industires. It’s also why the figures run by year; earlier they probably kept their internal figures by model year… at least, Excelsior did. Finally in 1922 Congress passed a fairly protective Fordney-McCumber tariff. Even so, exports were a major part (about half) of the motorcycle factories production up to the Depression.

Not to sidetrack this thread, but does anyone know how reliable the production figures are for Indian? We have pretty solid figures from Harley and Excelsior, but I’ve wondered how good the figures for Indian are.

Bob Turek
#769

[AFJ]

Good summary … the tariff issue actually came up just after the Great War. An isolationist group of Republicans controlled Congress, and the agricultural industry was not fairing well. During the first couple years of the twenties the legislature spent much time debating protectionist tariffs for American industry. It turns our that they discovered that they didn’t have much reliable information on production and exports. This lead the Census Bureau to begin collecting better statistics on economic output and activity. Thus the motorcycle manufacturers actually began providing production annual production numbers, along with most other industires. It’s also why the figures run by year; earlier they probably kept their internal figures by model year… at least, Excelsior did. Finally in 1922 Congress passed a fairly protective Fordney-McCumber tariff. Even so, exports were a major part (about half) of the motorcycle factories production up to the Depression.

Not to sidetrack this thread, but does anyone know how reliable the production figures are for Indian? We have pretty solid figures from Harley and Excelsior, but I’ve wondered how good the figures for Indian are.

Bob Turek
#769

I used the Wright and Sucher figures as they were all that I could find without going to the US bureauracy, and it is obvious that Sucher had difficulty getting more than estimates for a couple of years. Indian figures seem to have been inflated or vague in a couple of years when stock manipulation or some such financial hanky-panky was going on. The H-D figures were from their "official" history.
AFJ

[exeric]

Very interesting AFJ. I think when people bemoan how bad things are today, they only need look at how REALLY bad things were in the 1930s.

[AFJ]

Very interesting AFJ. I think when people bemoan how bad things are today, they only need look at how REALLY bad things were in the 1930s.

And in the 1940s, during WW2, things were even tougher. Rationing of food and other items like clothing, gasoline and tires occurred. In England the ration was one egg per person per week for example. In Canada, gasoline could only be bought if you had a coupon for every 5 gallons and an ordinary family with a car (not on essential war work) got 8 coupons for 3 months. (a Ford sedan back then got maybe 18 miles per gallon - so could drive maybe 18 x 40 = 720 miles every 3 months).
By the way the Smout-Hawley tariff is responsible for the idea that an "Antique" has to be 100 years old. Their 1930 list of tariffs on all items imported listed an antique as something "made in 1830 or earlier", thereby legally defining its taxable status.

AFJ