Rhinebeck 2015

[pisten-bully]

Cop even called us "farmers".

Hope you took that as a compliment!

[46EL]

First off I want to thank Mudfish and ALL the others that work hard to make this meet happen. I appreciate your efforts so I can get away for a day, sell some parts and find a few things for my projects.
As far as Rhinebeck not being what it was as far as the crowds, sales etc tell me what meet hasn't had some changes in the last 5 plus years since the economy changed? I do not go to Oley anymore and I was told by more than one vendor that sales on high dollar items was flat this year as well as last year??. How was Saturday at Rhinebeck? I had to leave Friday night so I do not know if the crowd was any better? As far as Police went you had to do something really stupid to have someone bother you at Rhinebeck. I personally never saw any Police anywhere but I didn't do a lot of walking? Personally I think it is the economy in Europe and Japan right now that has killed the market for a lot of stuff. Sad to say but yes, lots of things did leave the USA. But it did keep the money moving and that money kept people busy and they could afford to buy more stuff and or build more bikes. Plus with the NC Denton meet recently thrown into the lineup people can only travel and do so much. The whole hobby is constantly changing. I don't blame Rhinebeck for that change. Think back how big Harmony NJ was at one time and that meet in its final stages had about a dozen vendors the last 2 years if i remember correctly. Just my honest opinion and observations and nothing more.

[Hollywood]

Saturday was extremely light on foot traffic. I know that having the wrong date on the AMCA card didn't help. I personally know vendors that planned there year from that and could not make it due to the date change.
I wonder how many people will show up this coming weekend as indicated by the card?
Anyway I had a great time. My biggest disappointment was that the London Broil Sandwich vendor was not there!!!
Oh and the "This is the last year of Rhinebeck" rumor was floating around...as it has every year... maybe...maybe not.
Thanks for everything Mud Fish and company!

[46EL]

Thanks Jeff, I figured Saturday would be about the same. I made mention a while back about the wrong date and nobody responded.
Things like that do not help the situation and who ever was responsible for that mistake totally blew it sad to say.
I myself was very very happy as far as what I sold on Friday.
But I will say as far as parts go the long term outlook on a lot of this stuff is questionable.
And I also wonder if the next generation new young blood the Club is searching is going to have the money to buy or build a $35,000 Knucklehead?
Only time will tell. But I am glad i'm looking at re-retirement in the next year or two as the whole overall big picture scares me.
I wish I had an answer to the problem but I don't. 46EL

[BigLakeBob]

History shows us everything goes in cycles (no pun intended). Why wouldn't the motorcycle market be the same as the housing market, stock market, job market, etc. It has held out pretty good since '08 but the baby boomer and overseas money will move on IMO. Just like when there was a waiting list for new HD's in the late '90's, that ended. There sure are alot of late '90s and early 2000's HDs on the market for cheap money.

[duffeycycles]

Bob,I can't compare antique bikes with early POS twin cams that were overproduced and very expensive to maintain-There are way more people that want an old bike than there are old bikes-I have said many times that there are 10k in the club and more than 100k [probably millions]that want an old bike-old bikes have done well thru recessions- shop owners I know rarely see EVO bikes anymore

[BoschZEV]

Why wouldn't the motorcycle market be the same as the housing market, stock market, job market, etc. ...

There is a very good reason why the motorcycle market is not the same. Everyone needs housing, savings, and jobs. No one needs a motorcycle. A motorcycle is something that some people desire, but desires can come and go from fashion. No doubt someone could be found today who desires a Nehru jacket or bell bottom pants or paisley shirt, but the market for those items essentially came and went away. It wasn't cyclical.

Baby boomers fueled the growth of Honda, Yamaha, etc. in the 1960s, then the growth of Harley-Davidson starting in the 1980s. However, the oldest baby boomers were born in 1945 so are now turning 70. No matter how much someone might desire a motorcycle, by that age interest has started fading in many people (accelerated by replacement hip joints, arthritis, etc.).

Population growth is an inevitable driver for housing, jobs, etc., but not for motorcycles. Just because there are more people doesn't mean there will be more demand for motorcycles, because they are a "want" not a "need."

[BoschZEV]

There are way more people that want an old bike than there are old bikes-I have said many times that there are 10k in the club and more than 100k [probably millions]that want an old bike...

I think this misses an essential point. Whether or not there are "millions" of people who want an old bike could be argued, but there certainly aren't anything like that number who want them badly enough to spend $35k+. I'm in that category myself. I'd like an old Harley or Indian or whatever, and I even could afford to spend $35k without bankrupting the family, but I don't want one that badly.

old bikes have done well thru recessions

That's true, but it's because of those Baby Boomers who are now aging out of the market. Through at least the 1980s the price of Model T Fords rose steadily. But then the people who wanted them because they remembered them from their youth aged out of the market and prices hit a brick wall. Today you can have your choice of as many Model Ts as you want for under $15k, which is the price they were going for 25 years ago. Adjusted for inflation prices have fallen by nearly half.

You might remember there was a recession circa 1990 that hit both the old bike and old car markets. It took the better part of the 1990s for old bike prices to climb above their previous highs but mass-market old cars, like Model Ts, never did recover. However, a non-trivial factor that old bikes have going for them in maintaining demand is they are small. Even if someone only rides an old bike a few miles per year it takes up little space at the back of the garage, A car requires its own garage.

[exeric]

I tend to agree with Duffey. Barring an all out worldwide meltdown, or war; there are certain collectibles that have stood the test of time, and historical upheaval. Antique furniture, art (in all mediums), automobiles, books, musical instruments, weapons (of all types), coins, stamps, are some of the big ones. The only question is; will antique motorcycles be as highly regarded as art? Judging by the passion people have for them, it looks good. Values for collectibles will always fluctuate due to sociological, and economic trends but I believe antique motorcycles touch that special nerve that makes people do stupid things to get one.

[BoschZEV]

there are certain collectibles that have stood the test of time, and historical upheaval. Antique furniture, art (in all mediums), automobiles, books, musical instruments, weapons (of all types), coins, stamps, ...

With the exception of automobiles, all the examples you give are relatively small and therefore easy to incorporate within a standard house. The exception in terms of size are automobiles which, in general, have not stood the test of time. I'm sure someone can think of exceptions to what I'm about to write, but the ones that have continued to appreciate were not mass produced. The Bugattis, Duesenbergs, etc. were produced in limited numbers and priced for an exclusive clientelle. Harleys and Indians were produced in large numbers and priced for working class people.

The only question is; will antique motorcycles be as highly regarded as art?

If that's the question, I believe the answer definitely is 'no'. Art that appears in the news for having set yet another auction record was made in editions of one. There is only one original van Gogh of a given scene. Art that was semi-mass produced (e.g. lithographs) by major name-brand artists, or photographs in limited editions signed by the photographer, sells for much, much less. There are ample reasons to believe that motorcycles never will be regarded as art any more than, say, Hummel figurines, will be. Many of the best motorcycles are beautiful objects of industrial design, and prized by some people for that reason, but that doesn't make them "art" in the sense of collectible objects.

[exeric]

I don't think size has anything to do with collectability; nor does quantity, or lack of, necessarily make a difference. Fender made a lot of Stratocasters, there are a fair number of Stradivarius violins out there, and Picasso lithographs are extremely valuable. When you cite examples like Duesenburg, Bugatti, Van Gogh, or Jackson Pollock you're talking about iconic symbols of art. I don't think anyone here is that delusional to think that antique motorcycles are in that rarified air of "art". People have debated the definition of art since the days of the Lascaux cave paintings, and art is in the eye of the beholder, but we're talking about old bikes as a collectible, not as art. I should have worded my question more accurately; will antique motorcycles continue to be highly sought after, and collectible in the future. To that question, I believe the answer is yes.

[T. Cotten]

With the exception of automobiles, all the examples you give are relatively small and therefore easy to incorporate within a standard house. The exception in terms of size are automobiles which, in general, have not stood the test of time. I'm sure someone can think of exceptions to what I'm about to write, but the ones that have continued to appreciate were not mass produced. The Bugattis, Duesenbergs, etc. were produced in limited numbers and priced for an exclusive clientelle. Harleys and Indians were produced in large numbers and priced for working class people.

If that's the question, I believe the answer definitely is 'no'. Art that appears in the news for having set yet another auction record was made in editions of one. There is only one original van Gogh of a given scene. Art that was semi-mass produced (e.g. lithographs) by major name-brand artists, or photographs in limited editions signed by the photographer, sells for much, much less. There are ample reasons to believe that motorcycles never will be regarded as art any more than, say, Hummel figurines, will be. Many of the best motorcycles are beautiful objects of industrial design, and prized by some people for that reason, but that doesn't make them "art" in the sense of collectible objects.

Just throw them in the dumpster and get it over with.

....Cotten

[BigLakeBob]

As much as we want to think our beloved machines won't be part of a cycle, they will. Whether it is because, let's say the Japanese market collapses and they sell what they have been buying making our purchases cheaper. Our Fed Reserve finally quits pumping money into our economy like the past 7 years and peoples' investments fall and they don't have the money for expensive non essestials. Let's say fuels become scarcer, I may be different than some here, but if I can't run a $50k purchase I may think different on the investment. Then we have our aging cycle, most 30 year olds if asked probably don't know what a knucklehead is, let alone working to buy one. So once we 'age' out, the upcoming generations will make the cycle change. We went through the cycle of motorcycles made for transportation, then a means of adventure after WW2, then the chopper cycle, then all old bikes needed restored or over restored, now the original paint cycle. Knuckleheads are hot, flatheads are trailing but gaining ground. Whats next, a cycle trend change whatever may cause that, economics, passion, age, interest, etc. Lets say tomorrow our al mighty gov't passes a regulation limiting riding, some may not feel comfortable investing 50K in a garage ornament. Thats all I'm saying, natural or self inflicted, all things ride the wave then the wave hits shoreline.

[exeric]

Really; this is all moot. If you love the hobby, then that is the reward. If you're looking for an investment, then buy real estate. I've thrown away thousands of dollars on motorcycles but I don't see that as a bad investment. I have made lifelong friends, learned arcane, useless historical facts, had a ball riding dirty, smelly, loud, dangerous vehicles, and traveled all over the U.S. looking for junk, like a prospector looks for gold. The funny part is; the older I get, the more sense this makes.

[BoschZEV]

I don't think size has anything to do with collectability; nor does quantity, or lack of, necessarily make a difference. Fender made a lot of Stratocasters, there are a fair number of Stradivarius violins out there, and Picasso lithographs are extremely valuable. When you cite examples like Duesenburg, Bugatti, Van Gogh, or Jackson Pollock you're talking about iconic symbols of art. I don't think anyone here is that delusional to think that antique motorcycles are in that rarified air of "art".

"Art" was the word you used for motorcycles, not me ("will antique motorcycles be as highly regarded as art?"). I was just responding to that. But, the point about mass production remains. A Picasso lithograph sells for $20k while a Picasso painting sells for $20M (if not $200M).

Quantity definitely does make a difference to collectibility (by which I mean price for the purposes of this discussion). Yes, Fender made a lot of Stratocasters, but they didn't make very many in the 1950s and it is those that have relatively high prices. Ones that they made in much larger numbers are considerably cheaper. There are fewer than 250 Stradivarius violins in existence and ~2000 billionaires in the world who might want one as a status symbol and for whom price is, almost literally, no object. Everyone knows the name Stradivarius so someone who owns one can impress the world by buying one, but how many people other than AMCA members would be impressed if someone said they just bought a, say, Cyclone motorcycle?

I should have worded my question more accurately; will antique motorcycles continue to be highly sought after, and collectible in the future. To that question, I believe the answer is yes.

Again, crassly defining "collectible" as selling price, to me it's not so clear. I'll predict that the relatively few "blue chip" machines at the top stand a good chance of continuing to at least stay even with inflation, but a decade from now will see significant softening of the market below that. As examples of "blue chip" I mean truly rare (e.g. a very early Indian, Cyclone, etc.), low production (Crocker), documented racing heritage, owned by a celebrity like Elvis, etc.