$70,000 + Knuck??

[NicoNP]

I saw this '46 Knucklehead for sale on eBay. It went for $73,877.77!! AND there were 2 bids (losing bid was $73,777.00). Now I know these Knucks are worth some money, but $73 thou?

OK, original paint (probably), one owner, 12,000 org miles, sitting since 1963, hasn't run since '63. A 74 FL. Only non '46 part is the muffler. I thought bikes like this were worth somewhere in the 30 to 40 thousand dollar neighborhood.

So what am I missing? Is this real? Is this bike really worth $70 +? Or does someone have too much money on their hands?

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/HARLE...#ht_500wt_1159

[sirhrmechanic]

Two people wanted it... that's all it takes.

If the sale 'completes' and the bidders don't back out... yes, it is worth it.

Whether another one sells for that in the forseeable future will determine whether this set a new market price or was an anomaly.

Remember, the original paint/preservation class stuff is the hot ticket right now. All the rage whether in old cars or old bikes. A few years ago, it was board track racers. Now it's original paint and finish.

Won't be long before someone will figure out how to 'original paint' restorations and then we'll have the same situation as we do now with board track racers. Of the original 400 or so made and raced, only about 6500 survive!**

Cheers,

Sirhr


** I am pulling that number out of my... But my guess is that there are about 5x the number of "Original" board track racers floating around as were ever made and raced. Wonder if anyone knows for sure. We have a saying in Vermont: Antiques Made and Sold. Bring your wallet.

[D.A.Bagin]

What??? For 70 thou. No glass jewels???

[diesel55]

Hello also missing 2 600.00 each gas caps.was 46 the first year the first year wide fender braces.

[c.o.]

Two people wanted it... that's all it takes.

If the sale 'completes' and the bidders don't back out... yes, it is worth it.

Whether another one sells for that in the forseeable future will determine whether this set a new market price or was an anomaly.

Remember, the original paint/preservation class stuff is the hot ticket right now. All the rage whether in old cars or old bikes. A few years ago, it was board track racers. Now it's original paint and finish.

Won't be long before someone will figure out how to 'original paint' restorations and then we'll have the same situation as we do now with board track racers. Of the original 400 or so made and raced, only about 6500 survive!**

Cheers,

Sirhr


** I am pulling that number out of my... But my guess is that there are about 5x the number of "Original" board track racers floating around as were ever made and raced. Wonder if anyone knows for sure. We have a saying in Vermont: Antiques Made and Sold. Bring your wallet.

Sirhr... You make some very valid points. Knucks have been climbing consistently for awhile. It's like you said "Two people wanted it..." There's more people "wanting" than bikes available. So, if you want it you're gonna pay for it in the open market. Deals do appear periodically though. A family member of mine had been chasing a '46 Knuck for a couple of years. The fella wasn't ready to sell and the last time they talked, the conversation went in the direction of, "when I'm ready I'll call you". It was left alone for another year and when it was time to check back in he was told that it had been sold a month earlier!!!! When asked what he let it go for the answer was..... $6500!!!! That happened a little over a year ago....

As far as boardtrackers go... well... I think there are far more now than there ever were. I also think that it's O.K. to build one from parts to have fun and race and such. But to pass it off as the real deal ain't cool. It muddies the waters if you will.... just my two cents...

[gary.h]

yep thats what happens when most of our knuckles end up going to japan,,,the ones left here are worth more than your first born,with a side of an arm and a leg........

[sirhrmechanic]

Gary:

Not just Japan... in fact I would bet that in the past 10 years, there has been far less interest in Japan than in, say, the 1990's when they were buying Harley's as fast as they could.

I was amazed when I was riding in Sweden, Finland, Germany and Norway at the number of vintage American bikes there. And the size of individual collections. And these days, the strong New Zealand and Aussie Dollars are sending a lot of stuff to that part of the Pacific.

If the Chinese ever decide that they like American vintage motorcycles... watch out. But so far, they are more into limousines and cars with lots of rear legroom.

As Cory said, there are still deals out there and Knucks to be found. I bought mine, which has been posted on the forum many times, for $20K us. And bought it three years ago today... pretty much in the pit of the recession. I thought it was a good, not a great, deal at the time, but it was affordable and with lots of elbow grease, now I have a Knuck I never thought I could have or afford. But the early bikes, the unmolested machines, original paint unrestored bikes, etc. are going stratospheric while the 'average' stuff is flat or declining.

Same stuff is going on in cars... the investment grade stuff is climbing at a huge rate. The entry level machines are flat or have declined. Reason? In the economy since 2008, not as many people are at the 'entry level' any more. No home equity loans to buy a vintage rider. The 'new' or unknowledgable starting collector who would buy the lower end machines is worried about job, house payments, $4.50 gas, etc. Not about an affordable Knuck or VL or Indian... The person who can afford the investment grade machine is doing so whether the economy is good or bad and those prices go up accordingly. Also, with inflation concerns and with worries over 'paper' assets, physical assets are always in demand. Bernie Madoff can't ride off on you original paint Knuckle... it's always going to be a liquid asset (you can sell in a heartbeat when it has the right provenance) and it will keep up with or even beat inflation.

And there you have the market forces... That said, if you want a rider... if you are handy and can 'tinker up' an imperfect bike... if you can do your own restoration work... or if you just want to acquire some decent machines, there probably has not been a time since the early 1980's when it was better. Anomaly prices aside, there is a segment of the vintage bike market that is a total buyers market... and those bikes have nowhere to go but up. And the best part, is that you can ride the snot out of them because they are NOT museum pieces... An investment I can ride? Makes me happier than Oprah at a buffet!

Cheers,

Sirhr

[36 knuck man]

They still are deals out here, but you really need to dig to find them, I have bought 3 48 org paint pans for 10k or less since 2005, bought an org except paint 49 pan for under 9k, and it is a great rider, found it just 2 yrs ago. I am waiting to buy a one owner 49 pan with org paint and org sidecar. I have know this guy for over 40 yrs, but he just doesnt,t want to let it go yet. If I get this it will probably be very reasonable. So they are still some deals, just not on ebay however, thanks, Larry

[Rooster]

Two bids in the 'bid history' hardly constitutes a bidding war.
The "opening bid" was $70,000. After that, only the two bids.

[exeric]

Sirhr would know the car market beter than I, but I recall in the 1990s that Ferraris were outrageously over valued. Also, the '57 Chevy phenomenon. I truely believe this is knucklehead fever at it's peak and there will be a correction. Personally, I think a '46-'47 knuck is a $30k bike on it's best day. As for original paint, I wouldn't think of bidding on an O.P. bike without very careful scrutiny, and a second opinion. I've been to AMCA meets that featured O.P. bikes as a theme and the percentage of genuine bikes was maybe 50%. There are some talented artists out there and if a guy knows what he's doing, he can double his investment via artistic aging.

[upsrod]

Many people buy a fender here and a tank there and piece a bike together from parts and claim it is OP. Then others look at it and base their restoration on what they see because it has never been painted everything else must be correct. Total BS.

[gary.h]

Gary:

Not just Japan... in fact I would bet that in the past 10 years, there has been far less interest in Japan than in, say, the 1990's when they were buying Harley's as fast as they could.

I was amazed when I was riding in Sweden, Finland, Germany and Norway at the number of vintage American bikes there. And the size of individual collections. And these days, the strong New Zealand and Aussie Dollars are sending a lot of stuff to that part of the Pacific.

If the Chinese ever decide that they like American vintage motorcycles... watch out. But so far, they are more into limousines and cars with lots of rear legroom.

As Cory said, there are still deals out there and Knucks to be found. I bought mine, which has been posted on the forum many times, for $20K us. And bought it three years ago today... pretty much in the pit of the recession. I thought it was a good, not a great, deal at the time, but it was affordable and with lots of elbow grease, now I have a Knuck I never thought I could have or afford. But the early bikes, the unmolested machines, original paint unrestored bikes, etc. are going stratospheric while the 'average' stuff is flat or declining.

Same stuff is going on in cars... the investment grade stuff is climbing at a huge rate. The entry level machines are flat or have declined. Reason? In the economy since 2008, not as many people are at the 'entry level' any more. No home equity loans to buy a vintage rider. The 'new' or unknowledgable starting collector who would buy the lower end machines is worried about job, house payments, $4.50 gas, etc. Not about an affordable Knuck or VL or Indian... The person who can afford the investment grade machine is doing so whether the economy is good or bad and those prices go up accordingly. Also, with inflation concerns and with worries over 'paper' assets, physical assets are always in demand. Bernie Madoff can't ride off on you original paint Knuckle... it's always going to be a liquid asset (you can sell in a heartbeat when it has the right provenance) and it will keep up with or even beat inflation.

And there you have the market forces... That said, if you want a rider... if you are handy and can 'tinker up' an imperfect bike... if you can do your own restoration work... or if you just want to acquire some decent machines, there probably has not been a time since the early 1980's when it was better. Anomaly prices aside, there is a segment of the vintage bike market that is a total buyers market... and those bikes have nowhere to go but up. And the best part, is that you can ride the snot out of them because they are NOT museum pieces... An investment I can ride? Makes me happier than Oprah at a buffet!

Cheers,

Sirhr

thank you for your reply, that put things into perspective, take care Sirhr,and all the best.